ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN TRANSPORT VOLUME 1: PATHWAY TO LOW-CARBON TRANSPORT

2020-07-23 16:43:50

ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN TRANSPORT

VOLUME 1: PATHWAY TO LOW-CARBON TRANSPORT

Forewords

World Bank Group

Climate change is set to have profound effects on Vietnam’s development. With nearly 60 percent of its land area and 70 percent of population at risk of multiple natural hazards, Vietnam globally is among the most vulnerable countries to both chronic and extreme events. Over the past 25 years, extreme weather events have resulted in 0.4 to 1.7 percent of GDP loss, which climate change is predicted to steeply rise by 2050. At the same time, as Vietnam’s economy grows, the country is becoming a significant emitter of greenhouse gases. While Vietnam’s absolute volume of emissions is still small compared to that of larger and richer countries, emissions are growing rapidly and disproportionate to its economy size. Vietnam is the 13th most carbon intensive economy in the world, measured in terms of emissions per GDP, and 4th among the low- and middle-income countries in East Asia.

The transport sector plays a critical role in these recent trends. A steep rise in income and economic growth has led to rapid motorization: The country of around 96 million people is also home to nearly 40 million vehicles, including 35 million motorbikes. While car ownership is still relatively low in Vietnam, as income rises cars are quickly replacing motorbikes, especially in the largest cities. Public transport modal share remains persistently low, partly due to the low level of network development and partly to the convenience and affordability of two-wheeler-based mobility. Thanks to its economic success and rapid integration with the international trade, cargo transportation in Vietnam has seen remarkable growth in the recent years. Vietnam’s long coastal lines and extensive inland waterway network have been extensively used for the movement of goods; however, their modal share vis-à-vis road transport is declining.

Vietnam’s transport network, which has seen an impressive expansion over the past two decades, is increasingly vulnerable to the intensifying climate hazards. Today, Vietnam’s road network extends to over 400,000 km, much of which was not built to withstand extreme hazard scenarios, which are expected to become more frequent due to climate change. Without efforts to improve the resilience of the built network, Vietnam’s achievements in providing universal access to its rural communities may be undermined. Moreover, resilience of connectivity is critical to the continued success of Vietnam’s economy, which heavily relies on external trade and would increasingly depend on seamless rural-urban linkages.

In this analytical work, Addressing Climate Change in Transport for Vietnam, carried out by the World Bank and several other partners with support from the Ministry of Transport of Vietnam, the study aims to set out a vision and strategy for climate-smart transport, in order to minimize the carbon footprint of the sector while ensuring its resilience against future risks. The analytical findings and recommendations are presented in two volumes of the report: Volume 1—Pathway to Page | xii Low Carbon Transport and Volume 2—Pathway to Resilient Transport. The first volume provides how Vietnam can reduce its carbon emissions by employing a mix of diverse policies and investments, under varying levels of ambition and resources. The second volume provides a methodological framework to analyze network criticality and vulnerability, and to prioritize investments to enhance resilience.

These two report volumes have been prepared at a critical time, where the Government of Vietnam is working to update its Nationally Determined Contribution and set out its next medium-term public investment plan for the period of 2021 to 2025. We hope that these findings can provide useful insights and specific recommendations towards these critical documents, contributing to Vietnam’s achievement in developing a low-carbon and resilient transport sector.

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