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GLOBAL GROWTH TO WEAKEN TO 2.6% IN 2019, SUBSTANTIAL RISKS SEEN

2019-08-29 17:06:37

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GLOBAL GROWTH TO WEAKEN TO 2.6% IN 2019, SUBSTANTIAL RISKS SEEN

 

Global economic growth is forecast to ease to a weaker-than-expected 2.6% in 2019 before inching up to 2.7% in 2020. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to stabilize next year as some countries move past periods of financial strain, but economic momentum remains weak.

 

Regional Outlooks:

 

East Asia and Pacific: Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is projected to slow from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 5.9 percent in 2019 and 2020. This is the first time since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis that growth in the region has dropped below 6%. In China, growth is expected to decelerate from 6.6 percent in 2018 to 6.2 percent in 2019, predicated on a deceleration in global trade, stable commodity prices, supportive global financial conditions, and the ability of authorities to calibrate supportive monetary and fiscal policies to address external challenges and other headwinds. In the rest of the region growth is also expected to moderate to 5.1 percent in 2019, before rebounding modestly to 5.2 percent in 2020 and 2021, as global trade stabilizes.

 

Europe and Central Asia:  Regional growth is expected to firm to 2.7% in 2020 from a four-year low of 1.6% this year as Turkey recovers from an acute slowdown. Excluding Turkey, regional growth is expected to grow 2.6% in 2020, slightly up from 2.4% this year, with modest growth in domestic demand and a small drag from net exports. In Central Europe, fiscal stimulus and the resulting boost to private consumption will begin to fade in some of the subregion’s largest economies next year, while growth is expected to modestly recovery to 2.7% in Eastern Europe and moderate to 4% in Central Asia. Growth in the Western Balkans is anticipated to rise to 3.8% in 2020.

 

Latin America and the Caribbean: Regional growth expected to be a subdued 1.7% in 2019, reflecting challenging conditions in several of the largest economies, and to build to 2.5% in 2020, helped by a rebound in fixed investment and private consumption. In Brazil, a weak cyclical recovery is expected to gain traction, with growth rising to 2.5% next year from 1.5% in 2019. Argentina is projected to revert to positive growth in 2020 as the effects of financial market pressures fade, while easing policy uncertainty in Mexico is expected to help support a moderate growth uptick in Mexico next year, to 2%.

 

Middle East and North Africa: Regional growth is projected to rise to 3.2% in 2020, largely driven by rebound in growth among oil exporters. Growth among oil exporters is anticipated to pick up to 2.9% in 2020, supported by capital investment in the GCC and higher growth in Iraq. Among oil importing economies, increasing growth is predicated on policy reform progress and healthy tourism prospects.

 

South Asia: The outlook for the region is solid, with growth picking up to 7% in 2020 and 7.1% in 2021. Domestic demand growth is expected to remain robust with support from monetary and fiscal policy, in particular in India. Growth in India is projected to accelerate to 7.5% in FY 2019/20, which begins April 1. Pakistan’s growth is expected to slow further to 2.7% in FY2019/20, which begins July 16.

 

Sub-Saharan Africa: Regional growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3% in 2020, assuming that investor sentiment toward some of the large economies of the region improves, that oil production will recover in large exporters, and that robust growth in non-resource-intensive economies will be underpinned by continued strong agricultural production and sustained public investment. While per capita GDP is expected to rise in the region, it will nevertheless be insufficient to significantly reduce poverty. In 2020, growth in South Africa is anticipated to rise to 1.5%; growth in Angola is anticipated to pick up to 2.9%; and growth in Nigeria is anticipated to edge up to 2.2% in 2020.

 

Source: Worldbank.org 

 

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